CryptoPriceRanks

Prediction markets › Other

How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?

Other $114k traded · closes Jan 1, 2027 · updated 1 minute ago

OutcomeProbabilityVolumeCloses
Above 50 8% $47k Jan 1, 2027
Above 62 8% $15k Jan 1, 2027
Above 60 8% $13k Jan 1, 2027
Above 55 7% $13k Jan 1, 2027
Above 58 9% $12k Jan 1, 2027
Above 64 8% $6k Jan 1, 2027
Above 66 7% $6k Jan 1, 2027
Above 68 3% $3k Jan 1, 2027

Probability over time

Market-implied probability (%) · 6-hour points · source: Polymarket order book prices.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the number of Senators voting "Yea" on the first Senate vote on final passage of crypto market structure legislation occurring before January 1, 2027 is above the number specified in this market's title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Above" means strictly greater than the number specified in the title. For example, a market titled "Above 58" will resolve to "Yes" only if 59 or more Senators vote "Yea". For purposes of this market, "crypto market structure legislation" is defined identically to Polymarket's "Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?" market: https://polymarket.com/event/crypto-market-structure-legislation-becomes-law-in-2026-20260727223933088 The qualifying vote must be a vote on final passage of the bill conducted in the full Senate - not a committee vote, and not a vote on a motion to proceed, a motion to invoke cloture, or an amendment. Not every Senator needs to have participated in the vote. The first vote on final passage will be used for resolution regardless of whether the bill passes on that vote; subsequent votes on passage — including any re-vote following a motion to reconsider, or a vote on a conference report or House-amended version — will not be considered. If no qualifying vote occurs before January 1, 2027, this market will resolve to "No". If qualifying legislation passes the Senate before January 1, 2027 without a prior recorded vote on final passage (e.g., passage by voice vote or unanimous consent), this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of the number specified in this market's title. Once the result of the vote has been announced, any subsequent request by a Senator to add, remove, or change a vote will not be considered for purposes of this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally. This market will resolve according to official records of the U.S. Senate (http://senate.gov) and Library of Congress (http://congress.gov).

Probabilities are Polymarket share prices (a “Yes” share pays $1), not our forecast. Full rules and order book: this event on Polymarket. See more on the crypto prediction markets hub.

Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may be restricted where you live.