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Major CEX insolvent in 2026?
Other $136k traded · closes Dec 31, 2026 · updated 15 seconds ago
| Outcome | Probability | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Major CEX insolvent in 2026? | 3% | $136k | Dec 31, 2026 |
Probability over time
Market-implied probability (%) · 6-hour points · source: Polymarket order book prices.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if official information released by any of the following major centralized exchanges: Binance, Coinbase, Bybit, OKX, or Kraken, official representatives of such exchange (e.g. lawyers, spokespeople, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that the exchange is insolvent or is filing/has filed for any variety of bankruptcy.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Probabilities are Polymarket share prices (a “Yes” share pays $1), not our forecast. Full rules and order book: this event on Polymarket. See more on the crypto prediction markets hub.
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