Prediction markets › FDV after launch
Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year above $20B FDV?
FDV after launch $4k traded · closes Dec 31, 2026 · updated 1 minute ago
| Outcome | Probability | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year above $20B FDV? | 11% | $4k | Dec 31, 2026 |
Probability over time
Market-implied probability (%) · 6-hour points · source: Polymarket order book prices.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any token launched in 2026 ends the year with an FDV above $20B. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
A token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable to be considered launched.
The FDV will be calculated by multiplying the total token supply by the token price. The token price used will be the “Close” price on CoinGecko for December 31, 2026, as shown in the token’s historical data (e.g., Hyperliquid: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/hyperliquid/historical_data).
Stablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.
Probabilities are Polymarket share prices (a “Yes” share pays $1), not our forecast. Full rules and order book: this event on Polymarket. See more on the crypto prediction markets hub.
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