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Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026?

Other $110k traded · closes Dec 31, 2026 · updated 8 minutes ago

OutcomeProbabilityVolumeCloses
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026? 5% $110k Dec 31, 2026

Probability over time

Market-implied probability (%) · 6-hour points · source: Polymarket order book prices.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy incorporated is margin called on any of its Bitcoin-backed loans by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, resulting in either a forced liquidation of Bitcoin by a lender or MicroStrategy posting additional collateral or making a loan repayment in response to the margin call. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A margin call is defined as a lender formally requiring MicroStrategy to either provide additional collateral or repay part of a loan due to the value of Bitcoin collateral falling below the required loan-to-value (LTV) ratio. Voluntary Bitcoin sales by MicroStrategy that are not explicitly in response to a margin call will not count. The primary resolution sources will be SEC filings, official MicroStrategy statements, and a consensus of credible financial reporting.

Probabilities are Polymarket share prices (a “Yes” share pays $1), not our forecast. Full rules and order book: this event on Polymarket. See more on the crypto prediction markets hub.

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