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Will the Senate vote on the CLARITY Act before the August recess?

Other $55k traded · resolved · updated 2 hours ago

OutcomeProbabilityVolumeCloses
Will the Senate vote on the CLARITY Act before the August recess? No $55k Aug 7, 2026

Probability over time

Market-implied probability (%) · 6-hour points · source: Polymarket order book prices.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Senate conducts any recorded vote on the CLARITY Act, or on a motion relating to it, by 11:59:59 PM ET on August 7, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "recorded vote" is any vote in which individual Senators' positions are officially recorded, including roll call votes and yea-and-nay votes. The following satisfy the resolution criteria: - A vote on final passage of the bill - A vote on a motion to proceed to the bill - A vote on cloture, including cloture on the bill or cloture on a motion to proceed to the bill The following do NOT satisfy the resolution criteria: - Voice votes or division votes where individual Senators' positions are not recorded - Unanimous consent agreements without a recorded vote - Committee votes - Votes on amendments to the bill - Procedural determinations by the presiding officer, or deemed passage without an actual vote For purposes of this market, votes on Senate legislation that serves as the legislative vehicle for the CLARITY Act's crypto market structure provisions (e.g., a Senate substitute for or companion to H.R. 3633) will count as votes on the CLARITY Act. This market will resolve according to official records of the U.S. Senate (http://senate.gov), Library of Congress (http://congress.gov), and Congressional Record (https://www.congress.gov/congressional-record).

Probabilities are Polymarket share prices (a “Yes” share pays $1), not our forecast. Full rules and order book: this event on Polymarket. See more on the crypto prediction markets hub.

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