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Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by ___?
Other $183k traded · closes Dec 31, 2026 · updated 1 minute ago
| Outcome | Probability | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 27% | $102k | Dec 31, 2026 |
| December 31 | No | $81k | Dec 31, 2025 |
Probability over time
Market-implied probability (%) · 6-hour points · source: Polymarket order book prices.
How this market resolves
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if the USDC marketcap is equal to or greater than 50% of USDT marketcap on any day by December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for each coin, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin/historical_data#panel and https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel respectively, specifically the daily "Market Cap" data.
The daily market cap data for any given date will be considered finalized once data for the following calendar day is published on CoinGecko’s “Historical Data” page for both USDC and USDT.
This market will resolve based on the specified CoinGecko chart, not according to other sources or spot markets.
Probabilities are Polymarket share prices (a “Yes” share pays $1), not our forecast. Full rules and order book: this event on Polymarket. See more on the crypto prediction markets hub.
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