Prediction markets › Accuracy
How accurate are crypto prediction markets?
If markets priced at 70% happen about 70% of the time, their odds are well calibrated. Here is that check on every resolved crypto market we track.
One day before close
| Market said | Markets | Avg. predicted | Happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 3,889 | 1.3% | 1.6% |
| 10–20% | 251 | 14.3% | 19.9% |
| 20–30% | 183 | 25.3% | 32.2% |
| 30–40% | 169 | 35.3% | 31.4% |
| 40–50% | 312 | 45.7% | 50.3% |
| 50–60% | 478 | 52.7% | 61.1% |
| 60–70% | 143 | 64.5% | 69.9% |
| 70–80% | 165 | 74.5% | 79.4% |
| 80–90% | 160 | 85.2% | 88.8% |
| 90–100% | 1,364 | 98.6% | 99.6% |
By market type (Brier, lower is better): Price above 0.035 (n=2932) · Price range 0.074 (n=1864) · Price reaches 0.099 (n=602) · Price dips to 0.025 (n=502) · Up or down 0.258 (n=460) · Other 0.050 (n=393) · Token launch 0.000 (n=153) · Price below 0.000 (n=150) · FDV after launch 0.043 (n=21) · Listing 0.000 (n=17) · Airdrop 0.005 (n=17) · ETF 0.250 (n=3)
One week before close
| Market said | Markets | Avg. predicted | Happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 650 | 1.8% | 2.8% |
| 10–20% | 57 | 14.4% | 22.8% |
| 20–30% | 39 | 24.5% | 25.6% |
| 30–40% | 43 | 35.1% | 39.5% |
| 40–50% | 25 | 44.8% | 44.0% |
| 50–60% | 40 | 53.9% | 75.0% |
| 60–70% | 27 | 63.8% | 81.5% |
| 70–80% | 30 | 74.7% | 83.3% |
| 80–90% | 27 | 84.8% | 100.0% |
| 90–100% | 30 | 94.9% | 93.3% |
By market type (Brier, lower is better): Other 0.085 (n=281) · Price reaches 0.145 (n=261) · Price dips to 0.037 (n=208) · Token launch 0.001 (n=163) · FDV after launch 0.103 (n=21) · Listing 0.016 (n=17) · Airdrop 0.008 (n=17)
Method
For each crypto market that has resolved, we take the last recorded “Yes” price at least 24 hours (and 7 days) before the market closed — the earlier of its end date and the moment it settled — and compare it with the outcome. Prices come from Polymarket's public price history (hourly near the close, daily before that) and from our own 10-minute snapshots since 28 Sep 2026. Resolved markets were seeded from the 90 days before that date; very short up/down markets (5 minutes to 4 hours) are excluded. Markets with no price in the window are left out rather than guessed, and so are markets with under $1,000 traded or a price from their first 12 hours — a new market's order book shows about 50% before anyone trades, which is not a forecast.
Past calibration says nothing certain about any single market. Nothing here is financial advice.