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US Treasury announces Bitcoin purchase by ___?

Other Bitcoin $3k traded · closes Dec 31, 2027 · updated 48 seconds ago

OutcomeProbabilityVolumeCloses
December 31, 2026 8% $1k Dec 31, 2026
December 31, 2027 33% $2k Dec 31, 2027

Probability over time

Market-implied probability (%) · 6-hour points · source: Polymarket order book prices.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Department of the Treasury officially announces that it has purchased Bitcoin between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement must clearly and unambiguously communicate a completed purchase of Bitcoin; statements that the Treasury intends, plans, or is authorized to purchase Bitcoin, including through legislation or an executive order, will not qualify. Bitcoin acquired through seizure, forfeiture, or other non-purchase means, and indirect exposure such as funds or ETFs, will not qualify. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announcement is later reversed or retracted, or whether the Bitcoin is subsequently sold. A qualifying announcement must come from an official U.S. government source or an authorized U.S. government official acting in an official capacity, and must concern a purchase carried out by or on behalf of the Treasury. Qualifying sources include Treasury press releases, statements, websites, social media accounts, and Federal Register notices, as well as recorded or written statements by Treasury officials, the President, or the White House. For purposes of this market, the Treasury includes its bureaus and sub-bodies, such as the Bureau of the Fiscal Service, and any Treasury-authorized entity acting on its behalf. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States government; however, a definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Probabilities are Polymarket share prices (a “Yes” share pays $1), not our forecast. Full rules and order book: this event on Polymarket. See more on the crypto prediction markets hub or the Bitcoin price odds.

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