Prediction markets › Bitcoin
Bitcoin price prediction — real-money market odds
Where traders betting real money expect Bitcoin to trade: 315 active markets, $94.3M traded. Updated 7 minutes ago.
Chance Bitcoin is above each price on each date
| Price level | Sep 29 | Sep 30 | Oct 1 | Oct 2 | Oct 3 | Oct 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $96,000 | <1% | — | — | — | — | — |
| $94,000 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| $92,000 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | <1% | 1% |
| $90,000 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 3% |
| $88,000 | <1% | 1% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 9% |
| $86,000 | 3% | 8% | 13% | 17% | 19% | 21% |
| $84,000 | 25% | 34% | 38% | 40% | 41% | 42% |
| $82,000 | 88% | 78% | 71% | 68% | 66% | 65% |
| $80,000 | 99% | 96% | 91% | 88% | 87% | 85% |
| $78,000 | >99% | >99% | 97% | 96% | 95% | 94% |
| $76,000 | >99% | >99% | 99% | 99% | 99% | 98% |
| $74,000 | — | >99% | >99% | >99% | >99% | >99% |
Each cell: probability that BTC is above that price at the check time set in each market's resolution rules on Polymarket.
Chance Bitcoin reaches or dips to each level
| Level | by Sep 28 | by Sep 30 | by Oct 4 | by Dec 31 | by Mar 31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ $200,000 reach | — | — | — | 1% | — |
| ↑ $190,000 reach | — | — | — | 1% | — |
| ↑ $180,000 reach | — | — | — | 1% | — |
| ↑ $170,000 reach | — | — | — | 2% | — |
| ↑ $160,000 reach | — | — | — | 3% | — |
| ↑ $150,000 reach | — | — | — | 3% | 8% |
| ↑ $140,000 reach | — | — | — | 4% | — |
| ↑ $130,000 reach | — | — | — | 6% | — |
| ↑ $120,000 reach | — | — | — | 10% | — |
| ↑ $110,000 reach | — | — | — | 18% | — |
| ↑ $100,000 reach | — | <1% | — | 35% | 51% |
| ↑ $98,000 reach | — | — | 1% | — | — |
| ↑ $95,000 reach | — | <1% | — | 50% | — |
| ↑ $94,000 reach | — | — | 2% | — | — |
| ↑ $92,000 reach | — | — | 3% | — | — |
| ↑ $90,000 reach | <1% | 2% | 8% | 67% | — |
| ↑ $88,000 reach | <1% | — | 19% | — | — |
| ↑ $87,500 reach | — | 6% | — | — | — |
| ↑ $86,000 reach | 1% | — | 46% | — | — |
| ↑ $85,000 reach | 3% | 37% | — | — | — |
| ↓ $82,500 dip to | — | 70% | — | — | — |
| ↓ $82,000 dip to | 6% | — | 72% | — | — |
| ↓ $81,000 dip to | 2% | — | — | — | — |
| ↓ $80,000 dip to | <1% | 14% | 34% | — | — |
| ↓ $78,000 dip to | <1% | — | 12% | — | — |
| ↓ $77,500 dip to | — | 3% | — | — | — |
| ↓ $76,000 dip to | <1% | — | 5% | — | — |
| ↓ $75,000 dip to | — | 1% | — | — | — |
| ↓ $74,000 dip to | — | — | 2% | — | — |
| ↓ $70,000 dip to | — | <1% | <1% | 33% | — |
| ↓ $65,000 dip to | — | <1% | — | 20% | — |
| ↓ $60,000 dip to | — | <1% | — | 14% | — |
| ↓ $55,000 dip to | — | <1% | — | 9% | — |
| ↓ $50,000 dip to | — | — | — | 7% | — |
| ↓ $45,000 dip to | — | — | — | 4% | — |
| ↓ $40,000 dip to | — | — | — | 4% | — |
| ↓ $35,000 dip to | — | — | — | 2% | — |
| ↓ $30,000 dip to | — | — | — | 2% | — |
| ↓ $25,000 dip to | — | — | — | 1% | — |
| ↓ $20,000 dip to | — | — | — | 2% | — |
Touch markets: they resolve “Yes” the first time BTC trades at the level before the deadline.
Where Bitcoin closes on Sep 29
| Range | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| $78,000 – $80,000 | 1% | $9k |
| $80,000 – $82,000 | 11% | $10k |
| $82,000 – $84,000 | 64% | $3k |
| $84,000 – $86,000 | 24% | $2k |
| $86,000 – $88,000 | 1% | $2k |
| $88,000 – $90,000 | <1% | $5k |
| $90,000 – $92,000 | <1% | $4k |
| $92,000 – $94,000 | <1% | $216 |
| $94,000 – $96,000 | <1% | $115 |
Other Bitcoin price markets
| Market | Probability | Closes |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down on September 29? (Up) | 46% | Sep 29, 12:00 PM ET |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78,000 on September 29? | <1% | Sep 29, 12:00 PM ET |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on September 30? (Up) | 50% | Sep 30, 12:00 PM ET |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $74,000 on September 30? | <1% | Sep 30, 12:00 PM ET |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76,000 on October 1? | 1% | Oct 1, 12:00 PM ET |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $74,000 on October 2? | <1% | Oct 2, 12:00 PM ET |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76,000 on October 3? | 1% | Oct 3, 12:00 PM ET |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76,000 on October 4? | 1% | Oct 4, 12:00 PM ET |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $74,000 on October 5? | 2% | Oct 5, 12:00 PM ET |
How the odds have moved
Market-implied probability (%) · 6-hour points · source: Polymarket order book prices.
Related Bitcoin events
- Bitcoin all time high by ___? Other
- Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Other
- Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Other
- Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026 Other
- Bitcoin best month in 2026? Other
- Will MicroStrategy announce holding ___ BTC by December 31, 2026? Other
- Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Other
- Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? Other
- Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027? Other
- Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by ___? Other
- Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by...? Other
- US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? Other
About these numbers
Every probability is the current price of a “Yes” share on Polymarket — a share pays $1 if the outcome happens, so a 0.30 price means roughly a 30% chance in the market's view. They are not our forecasts. Short-dated and thinly traded markets can jump on single trades. How often these prices were right in the past is tracked on the accuracy page.
Put this on your site: Bitcoin odds widget · Also on CryptoPriceRanks: Bitcoin fees — BTC withdrawal fees by exchange.
Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may be restricted where you live.