Prediction markets › Bitcoin
Bitcoin price prediction — real-money market odds
Where traders betting real money expect Bitcoin to trade: 336 active markets, $99.3M traded. Updated 6 minutes ago.
$71,433BTC spot (binance)
-3.53%24h change
336active markets
Chance Bitcoin is above each price on each date
| Price level | Nov 13 | Nov 14 | Nov 15 | Nov 16 | Nov 17 | Nov 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $86,000 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | — | — |
| $84,000 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | — | 1% |
| $82,000 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| $80,000 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | <1% | 2% |
| $78,000 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 2% | 4% |
| $76,000 | <1% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 7% | 10% |
| $74,000 | 5% | 8% | 12% | 16% | 20% | 24% |
| $72,000 | 35% | 39% | 43% | 42% | 43% | 43% |
| $70,000 | 85% | 80% | 79% | 72% | 68% | 67% |
| $68,000 | 96% | 95% | 95% | 90% | 87% | 84% |
| $66,000 | 99% | 98% | 98% | 96% | 94% | 93% |
| $64,000 | — | — | — | — | 97% | 96% |
| $62,000 | — | — | — | — | 99% | — |
| $40 | — | — | 49% | — | — | — |
Each cell: probability that BTC is above that price at the check time set in each market's resolution rules on Polymarket.
Chance Bitcoin reaches or dips to each level
| Level | by Nov 12 | by Nov 15 | by Nov 30 | by Dec 31 | by Mar 31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ $150,000 reach | — | — | — | 1% | 4% |
| ↑ $130,000 reach | — | — | — | 1% | — |
| ↑ $120,000 reach | — | — | — | 1% | — |
| ↑ $110,000 reach | — | — | — | 2% | — |
| ↑ $100,000 reach | — | — | <1% | 5% | 21% |
| ↑ $95,000 reach | — | — | 1% | 7% | — |
| ↑ $92,500 reach | — | — | 2% | — | — |
| ↑ $90,000 reach | — | — | 2% | 12% | — |
| ↑ $87,500 reach | — | — | 4% | — | — |
| ↑ $85,000 reach | — | — | 6% | — | — |
| ↑ $82,500 reach | — | — | 9% | — | — |
| ↑ $80,000 reach | <1% | <1% | 17% | — | — |
| ↑ $78,000 reach | <1% | 2% | — | — | — |
| ↑ $77,500 reach | — | — | 31% | — | — |
| ↑ $76,000 reach | <1% | 6% | — | — | — |
| ↑ $75,000 reach | <1% | — | 54% | — | — |
| ↑ $74,000 reach | <1% | 24% | — | — | — |
| ↑ $72,500 reach | — | — | 82% | — | — |
| ↓ $71,000 dip to | 45% | — | — | — | — |
| ↓ $70,000 dip to | 10% | 51% | 77% | 85% | — |
| ↓ $69,000 dip to | 3% | — | — | — | — |
| ↓ $68,000 dip to | 1% | 17% | — | — | — |
| ↓ $67,500 dip to | — | — | 48% | — | — |
| ↓ $66,000 dip to | <1% | 7% | — | — | — |
| ↓ $65,000 dip to | — | — | 30% | 48% | — |
| ↓ $64,000 dip to | — | 2% | — | — | — |
| ↓ $62,500 dip to | — | — | 17% | — | — |
| ↓ $62,000 dip to | — | 1% | — | — | — |
| ↓ $60,000 dip to | — | <1% | 10% | 27% | — |
| ↓ $57,500 dip to | — | — | 5% | — | — |
| ↓ $55,000 dip to | — | — | 3% | 14% | — |
| ↓ $50,000 dip to | — | — | — | 9% | — |
| ↓ $45,000 dip to | — | — | — | 5% | — |
| ↓ $40,000 dip to | — | — | — | 3% | — |
| ↓ $35,000 dip to | — | — | — | 2% | — |
| ↓ $30,000 dip to | — | — | — | 2% | — |
| ↓ $25,000 dip to | — | — | — | 1% | — |
Touch markets: they resolve “Yes” the first time BTC trades at the level before the deadline.
Where Bitcoin closes on Nov 13
| Range | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| $68,000 – $70,000 | 14% | $5k |
| $70,000 – $72,000 | 50% | $5k |
| $72,000 – $74,000 | 33% | $7k |
| $74,000 – $76,000 | 4% | $2k |
| $76,000 – $78,000 | <1% | $3k |
| $78,000 – $80,000 | <1% | $7k |
| $80,000 – $82,000 | <1% | $5k |
| $82,000 – $84,000 | <1% | $2k |
| $84,000 – $86,000 | <1% | $1k |
Other Bitcoin price markets
| Market | Probability | Closes |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down on November 13? (Up) | 41% | Nov 13, 12:00 PM ET |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on November 13? | 3% | Nov 13, 12:00 PM ET |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on November 14? (Up) | 50% | Nov 14, 12:00 PM ET |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $66,000 on November 14? | 1% | Nov 14, 12:00 PM ET |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $66,000 on November 15? | 2% | Nov 15, 12:00 PM ET |
| Will Bitcoin hashprice be less than $25 for the week of November 9? | 49% | Nov 15, 7:00 PM ET |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $66,000 on November 16? | 3% | Nov 16, 12:00 PM ET |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on November 17? | 2% | Nov 17, 12:00 PM ET |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $66,000 on November 18? | 6% | Nov 18, 12:00 PM ET |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on November 19? | 2% | Nov 19, 12:00 PM ET |
How the odds have moved
Market-implied probability (%) · 6-hour points · source: Polymarket order book prices.
Biggest Bitcoin moves in 24 hours
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on November 13? 88% → 35% (-52 pp)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on November 14? 85% → 39% (-46 pp)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 13? 51% → 5% (-46 pp)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 14? 50% → 8% (-42 pp)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 15? 52% → 12% (-40 pp)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on November 15? 81% → 43% (-39 pp)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on November 13? 11% → 50% (+38 pp)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 November 9-15? 15% → 51% (+36 pp)
Related Bitcoin events
- Bitcoin all time high by ___? Other
- Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Other
- Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Other
- Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026 Other
- Bitcoin best month in 2026? Other
- Will MicroStrategy announce holding ___ BTC by December 31, 2026? Other
- Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Other
- Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? Other
- Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027? Other
- Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by ___? Other
- Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by...? Other
- US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? Other
About these numbers
Every probability is the current price of a “Yes” share on Polymarket — a share pays $1 if the outcome happens, so a 0.30 price means roughly a 30% chance in the market's view. They are not our forecasts. Short-dated and thinly traded markets can jump on single trades. How often these prices were right in the past is tracked on the accuracy page.
Put this on your site: Bitcoin odds widget · Also on CryptoPriceRanks: Bitcoin fees — BTC withdrawal fees by exchange.
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