Prediction markets › Bitcoin
Bitcoin price prediction — real-money market odds
Where traders betting real money expect Bitcoin to trade: 331 active markets, $85.9M traded. Updated 2 minutes ago.
$83,847BTC spot (binance)
-2.30%24h change
331active markets
Chance Bitcoin is above each price on each date
| Price level | Oct 7 | Oct 8 | Oct 9 | Oct 10 | Oct 11 | Oct 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $96,000 | — | — | <1% | — | <1% | <1% |
| $94,000 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| $92,000 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| $90,000 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% |
| $88,000 | <1% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 8% |
| $86,000 | 2% | 9% | 15% | 17% | 19% | 21% |
| $84,000 | 43% | 46% | 47% | 47% | 47% | 47% |
| $82,000 | 95% | 89% | 85% | 81% | 80% | 76% |
| $80,000 | >99% | 98% | 96% | 95% | 94% | 92% |
| $78,000 | >99% | 99% | 99% | 98% | 98% | 97% |
| $76,000 | >99% | >99% | >99% | 99% | >99% | >99% |
| $74,000 | >99% | >99% | — | >99% | — | — |
| $50 | — | — | — | — | 47% | — |
Each cell: probability that BTC is above that price at the check time set in each market's resolution rules on Polymarket.
Chance Bitcoin reaches or dips to each level
| Level | by Oct 7 | by Oct 11 | by Oct 31 | by Dec 31 | by Mar 31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ $200,000 reach | — | — | — | 1% | — |
| ↑ $190,000 reach | — | — | — | 1% | — |
| ↑ $180,000 reach | — | — | — | 1% | — |
| ↑ $170,000 reach | — | — | — | 2% | — |
| ↑ $160,000 reach | — | — | — | 2% | — |
| ↑ $150,000 reach | — | — | <1% | 3% | 9% |
| ↑ $140,000 reach | — | — | — | 3% | — |
| ↑ $130,000 reach | — | — | — | 5% | — |
| ↑ $120,000 reach | — | — | — | 8% | — |
| ↑ $110,000 reach | — | — | — | 16% | — |
| ↑ $105,000 reach | — | — | 3% | — | — |
| ↑ $102,500 reach | — | — | 5% | — | — |
| ↑ $100,000 reach | — | <1% | 7% | 34% | 55% |
| ↑ $97,500 reach | — | — | 11% | — | — |
| ↑ $95,000 reach | — | — | 18% | 48% | — |
| ↑ $92,500 reach | — | — | 27% | — | — |
| ↑ $92,000 reach | <1% | 1% | — | — | — |
| ↑ $90,000 reach | <1% | 3% | 41% | 70% | — |
| ↑ $88,000 reach | <1% | 13% | — | — | — |
| ↑ $87,500 reach | — | — | 60% | — | — |
| ↑ $87,000 reach | 2% | — | — | — | — |
| ↑ $86,000 reach | 10% | 42% | — | — | — |
| ↑ $85,000 reach | 31% | — | — | — | — |
| ↓ $83,000 dip to | 44% | — | — | — | — |
| ↓ $82,500 dip to | — | — | 84% | — | — |
| ↓ $82,000 dip to | 12% | 48% | — | — | — |
| ↓ $81,000 dip to | 4% | — | — | — | — |
| ↓ $80,000 dip to | 2% | 16% | 59% | — | — |
| ↓ $78,000 dip to | 1% | 5% | — | — | — |
| ↓ $77,500 dip to | — | — | 36% | — | — |
| ↓ $76,000 dip to | — | 2% | — | — | — |
| ↓ $75,000 dip to | — | — | 24% | — | — |
| ↓ $74,000 dip to | — | 1% | — | — | — |
| ↓ $72,500 dip to | — | — | 13% | — | — |
| ↓ $70,000 dip to | — | — | 8% | 31% | — |
| ↓ $67,500 dip to | — | — | 5% | — | — |
| ↓ $65,000 dip to | — | — | 4% | 17% | — |
| ↓ $62,500 dip to | — | — | 2% | — | — |
| ↓ $60,000 dip to | — | — | 1% | 10% | — |
| ↓ $55,000 dip to | — | — | — | 8% | — |
| ↓ $50,000 dip to | — | — | — | 6% | — |
| ↓ $45,000 dip to | — | — | — | 4% | — |
| ↓ $40,000 dip to | — | — | — | 3% | — |
| ↓ $35,000 dip to | — | — | — | 2% | — |
| ↓ $30,000 dip to | — | — | — | 2% | — |
| ↓ $20,000 dip to | — | — | — | 1% | — |
Touch markets: they resolve “Yes” the first time BTC trades at the level before the deadline.
Where Bitcoin closes on Oct 7
| Range | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| $76,000 – $78,000 | <1% | $827 |
| $78,000 – $80,000 | <1% | $9k |
| $80,000 – $82,000 | 3% | $17k |
| $82,000 – $84,000 | 52% | $11k |
| $84,000 – $86,000 | 41% | $8k |
| $86,000 – $88,000 | 2% | $6k |
| $88,000 – $90,000 | <1% | $11k |
| $90,000 – $92,000 | <1% | $14k |
| $92,000 – $94,000 | <1% | $643 |
Other Bitcoin price markets
| Market | Probability | Closes |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down on October 7? (Up) | 4% | Oct 7, 12:00 PM ET |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76,000 on October 7? | <1% | Oct 7, 12:00 PM ET |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on October 8? (Up) | 51% | Oct 8, 12:00 PM ET |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76,000 on October 8? | <1% | Oct 8, 12:00 PM ET |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76,000 on October 9? | 1% | Oct 9, 12:00 PM ET |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76,000 on October 10? | 2% | Oct 10, 12:00 PM ET |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76,000 on October 11? | 2% | Oct 11, 12:00 PM ET |
| Will Bitcoin hashprice be less than $35 for the week of October 5? | 47% | Oct 11, 8:00 PM ET |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76,000 on October 12? | <1% | Oct 12, 12:00 PM ET |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76,000 on October 13? | 2% | Oct 13, 12:00 PM ET |
How the odds have moved
Market-implied probability (%) · 6-hour points · source: Polymarket order book prices.
Biggest Bitcoin moves in 24 hours
- Bitcoin Up or Down on October 7? 51% → 4% (-47 pp)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 7? 90% → 43% (-47 pp)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 7? 9% → 52% (+43 pp)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 7? 44% → 2% (-42 pp)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 8? 46% → 9% (-38 pp)
- Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 October 5-11? 50% → 13% (-38 pp)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 8? 82% → 46% (-36 pp)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on October 7? 38% → 2% (-36 pp)
Related Bitcoin events
- Bitcoin all time high by ___? Other
- Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Other
- Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Other
- Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026 Other
- Bitcoin best month in 2026? Other
- Will MicroStrategy announce holding ___ BTC by December 31, 2026? Other
- Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Other
- Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? Other
- Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027? Other
- Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by ___? Other
- Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by...? Other
- US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? Other
About these numbers
Every probability is the current price of a “Yes” share on Polymarket — a share pays $1 if the outcome happens, so a 0.30 price means roughly a 30% chance in the market's view. They are not our forecasts. Short-dated and thinly traded markets can jump on single trades. How often these prices were right in the past is tracked on the accuracy page.
Put this on your site: Bitcoin odds widget · Also on CryptoPriceRanks: Bitcoin fees — BTC withdrawal fees by exchange.
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