Prediction markets › Other
Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by...?
Other Bitcoin $85k traded · closes Dec 31, 2026 · updated 1 minute ago
| Outcome | Probability | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 15% | $11k | Dec 31, 2026 |
| December 31 | No | $60k | Sep 29, 2025 |
| September 30 | No | $14k | Sep 29, 2025 |
Probability over time
Market-implied probability (%) · 6-hour points · source: Polymarket order book prices.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the bitcoin holding officially owned by the Republic of the El Salvador government reaches or surpasses a value of $1b at any point by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolutions source for this market will be the ARKHAM INTEL tracker (see: https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/el-salvador). Any temporary glitches or errors in the tracker will not be considered. If the tracker becomes permanently unavailable another credible source may be used. Official announcements form the government of El Salvador confirming their bitcoin holdings have reached or surpassed $1b in value will also qualify.
Probabilities are Polymarket share prices (a “Yes” share pays $1), not our forecast. Full rules and order book: this event on Polymarket. See more on the crypto prediction markets hub or the Bitcoin price odds.
Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may be restricted where you live.