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Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?
Other Bitcoin $469k traded · closes Dec 31, 2026 · updated 15 seconds ago
| Outcome | Probability | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? | 44% | $469k | Dec 31, 2026 |
Probability over time
Market-implied probability (%) · 6-hour points · source: Polymarket order book prices.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the percentage change for BTC/USDT is higher than the percentage change for XAU/USD for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is information from TradingView, specifically the charts for BTC/USDT (https://fr.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT) and XAU/USD (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=OANDA%3AXAUUSD). The change value displayed at the top of the graph for the “12M” candle dated “01 Jan ’26” will be used once the data for both relevant candles are finalized.
If the change is exactly equal according to the resolution source for the specified candles, this market will resolve 50-50.
Probabilities are Polymarket share prices (a “Yes” share pays $1), not our forecast. Full rules and order book: this event on Polymarket. See more on the crypto prediction markets hub or the Bitcoin price odds.
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