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Will a new country buy Bitcoin by...?
Other Bitcoin $31k traded · closes Dec 31, 2026 · updated 1 minute ago
| Outcome | Probability | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 24% | $23k | Dec 31, 2026 |
| December 31, 2025 | No | $7k | Dec 31, 2025 |
| June 30, 2026 | No | $1k | Jun 30, 2026 |
Probability over time
Market-implied probability (%) · 6-hour points · source: Polymarket order book prices.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of any sovereign UN member state announces between November 13, 3:00 PM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET that they bought Bitcoin for the first time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This announcement can pertain to a first purchase of Bitcoin outside of the timeframe of this market (e.g. if a country announces it made its first purchase of Bitcoin prior to this market's timeframe, but the announcement is made within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes").
A qualifying purchase requires a relevant country take direct custody over the Bitcoin they purchase. Buying into investment vehicles, ETFs, etc., which do not constitute a direct purchase of Bitcoin, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from the governments of any purchasing UN member state, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Probabilities are Polymarket share prices (a “Yes” share pays $1), not our forecast. Full rules and order book: this event on Polymarket. See more on the crypto prediction markets hub or the Bitcoin price odds.
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