Prediction markets › Other
Will knots flip bitcoin core by ___?
Other Bitcoin $38k traded · closes Dec 31, 2026 · updated 15 seconds ago
| Outcome | Probability | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 50% | $588 | Dec 31, 2026 |
| December 31 | No | $38k | Dec 31, 2025 |
Probability over time
Market-implied probability (%) · 6-hour points · source: Polymarket order book prices.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the number of Bitcoin Knots nodes exceeds the number of Bitcoin Core nodes. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
The resolution source for this market is https://coin.dance/nodes/all, specifically the “Bitcoin Nodes” chart.
Resolution will be based on the node counts displayed when hovering over each date for Bitcoin Core Nodes and Bitcoin Knots Nodes.
A data point for a given day will be considered finalized once data for the following day is published.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable within this market’s timeframe and before resolution criteria are met, the market will resolve based on a reliable alternative source or public data consistent with the official Bitcoin node counts.
Probabilities are Polymarket share prices (a “Yes” share pays $1), not our forecast. Full rules and order book: this event on Polymarket. See more on the crypto prediction markets hub or the Bitcoin price odds.
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