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Will Ledger announce compensation or reimbursement for affected users by…
Other $983 traded · closes Oct 31, 2026 · updated 56 seconds ago
| Outcome | Probability | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 16 | 17% | $454 | Oct 16, 2026 |
| October 31 | 30% | $529 | Oct 31, 2026 |
Probability over time
Market-implied probability (%) · 6-hour points · source: Polymarket order book prices.
How this market resolves
Ledger is investigating reports of loss of funds from users who purchased hardware wallets through third-party reseller CryptoBillis.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ledger officially announces a plan to compensate, reimburse, or otherwise make whole any affected users for funds lost in this incident by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any form of qualifying compensation will count toward a “Yes” resolution, including but not limited to direct reimbursement, a dedicated victim compensation fund, or a formal arrangement with a third party (e.g., an insurer or the reseller) to cover user losses. A general statement of regret, or an offer to merely assist with investigation or asset recovery without a concrete compensation commitment, will not qualify. Replacement devices, discounts, or other goodwill gestures that do not cover lost funds will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be an official statement from Ledger or Ledger.com, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used to resolve this market.
Probabilities are Polymarket share prices (a “Yes” share pays $1), not our forecast. Full rules and order book: this event on Polymarket. See more on the crypto prediction markets hub.
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