Prediction markets › FDV after launch
Base FDV above ___ one day after launch?
FDV after launch $841k traded · closes Dec 31, 2027 · updated 9 minutes ago
| Outcome | Probability | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|
| $2B | 58% | $290k | Dec 31, 2027 |
| $6B | 31% | $133k | Dec 31, 2027 |
| $12B | 12% | $119k | Dec 31, 2027 |
| $8B | 14% | $92k | Dec 31, 2027 |
| $4B | 37% | $80k | Dec 31, 2027 |
| $10B | 16% | $63k | Dec 31, 2027 |
| $500M | 61% | $43k | Dec 31, 2027 |
| $1B | 60% | $12k | Dec 31, 2027 |
| $5B | 32% | $8k | Dec 31, 2027 |
| $3B | 44% | $634 | Dec 31, 2027 |
Probability over time
Market-implied probability (%) · 6-hour points · source: Polymarket order book prices.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Base's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."
The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.
The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.
"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Base doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Probabilities are Polymarket share prices (a “Yes” share pays $1), not our forecast. Full rules and order book: this event on Polymarket. See more on the crypto prediction markets hub.
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