Prediction markets › Other
Satoshi's identity be proven by...?
Other $2.0M traded · closes Dec 31, 2026 · updated 9 minutes ago
| Outcome | Probability | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 2% | $938k | Dec 31, 2026 |
| April 30 | No | $15k | Apr 30, 2026 |
| June 30 | No | $1.0M | Jun 30, 2026 |
| July 31 | No | $5k | Jul 31, 2026 |
Probability over time
Market-implied probability (%) · 6-hour points · source: Polymarket order book prices.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is definitively proven between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The resolution source for this market will be definitive evidence confirming the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets. However, a credible consensus of reporting will also be used.
Probabilities are Polymarket share prices (a “Yes” share pays $1), not our forecast. Full rules and order book: this event on Polymarket. See more on the crypto prediction markets hub.
Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may be restricted where you live.