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Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
Other $210k traded · closes Jan 1, 2027 · updated 1 minute ago
| Outcome | Probability | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hawley | 11% | $30k | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Jacky Rosen | 9% | $24k | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Thom Tillis | 12% | $21k | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Rand Paul | 10% | $21k | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Mike Lee | 10% | $15k | Dec 31, 2026 |
| John Fetterman | 9% | $12k | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Alex Padilla | 9% | $7k | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Catherine Cortez Masto | 8% | $7k | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Andy Kim | 7% | $3k | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Raphael Warnock | 12% | $3k | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Mark Warner | 5% | $25k | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Ruben Gallego | 5% | $16k | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Jerry Moran | 2% | $13k | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Kirsten Gillibrand | 10% | $6k | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Lisa Blunt Rochester | 7% | $6k | Jan 1, 2027 |
Probability over time
Market-implied probability (%) · 6-hour points · source: Polymarket order book prices.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Senator votes "Yea" on the first Senate vote on final passage of crypto market structure legislation occurring before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For purposes of this market, "crypto market structure legislation" is defined identically to Polymarket's "Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?" market: https://polymarket.com/event/crypto-market-structure-legislation-becomes-law-in-2026-20260727223933088
The qualifying vote is the first vote on final passage of the bill in the full Senate - not a committee vote, and not a vote on a motion to proceed, a motion to invoke cloture, or an amendment.
This market will resolve to "No" if no qualifying vote occurs before January 1, 2027, or if the named Senator does not vote "Yea" on the qualifying vote for any reason - including voting "Nay," voting "Present," being absent, being paired, or no longer serving in the Senate at the time of the vote.
Once the vote has closed and the result has been announced, any subsequent request by the named Senator to add, remove, or change their vote will not be considered for purposes of this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally.
This market will resolve according to official records of the U.S. Senate (http://senate.gov) and Library of Congress (http://congress.gov).
Probabilities are Polymarket share prices (a “Yes” share pays $1), not our forecast. Full rules and order book: this event on Polymarket. See more on the crypto prediction markets hub.
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