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Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?

Other $531k traded · closes Jan 1, 2027 · updated 6 minutes ago

OutcomeProbabilityVolumeCloses
Rand Paul 1% $66k Dec 31, 2026
Mike Lee 5% $65k Dec 31, 2026
Catherine Cortez Masto 3% $59k Dec 31, 2026
Josh Hawley 1% $59k Dec 31, 2026
Thom Tillis <1% $31k Dec 31, 2026
Jacky Rosen 3% $28k Dec 31, 2026
Alex Padilla 2% $24k Dec 31, 2026
John Fetterman 2% $14k Dec 31, 2026
Andy Kim 3% $6k Dec 31, 2026
Raphael Warnock 4% $5k Dec 31, 2026
Mark Warner 4% $91k Jan 1, 2027
Ruben Gallego 2% $29k Jan 1, 2027
Lisa Blunt Rochester 3% $26k Jan 1, 2027
Jerry Moran <1% $17k Jan 1, 2027
Kirsten Gillibrand 3% $11k Jan 1, 2027

Probability over time

Market-implied probability (%) · 6-hour points · source: Polymarket order book prices.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Senator votes "Yea" on the first Senate vote on final passage of crypto market structure legislation occurring before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, "crypto market structure legislation" is defined identically to Polymarket's "Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?" market: https://polymarket.com/event/crypto-market-structure-legislation-becomes-law-in-2026-20260727223933088 The qualifying vote is the first vote on final passage of the bill in the full Senate - not a committee vote, and not a vote on a motion to proceed, a motion to invoke cloture, or an amendment. This market will resolve to "No" if no qualifying vote occurs before January 1, 2027, or if the named Senator does not vote "Yea" on the qualifying vote for any reason - including voting "Nay," voting "Present," being absent, being paired, or no longer serving in the Senate at the time of the vote. Once the vote has closed and the result has been announced, any subsequent request by the named Senator to add, remove, or change their vote will not be considered for purposes of this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally. This market will resolve according to official records of the U.S. Senate (http://senate.gov) and Library of Congress (http://congress.gov).

Probabilities are Polymarket share prices (a “Yes” share pays $1), not our forecast. Full rules and order book: this event on Polymarket. See more on the crypto prediction markets hub.

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