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Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?

Other $210k traded · closes Jan 1, 2027 · updated 1 minute ago

OutcomeProbabilityVolumeCloses
Josh Hawley 11% $30k Dec 31, 2026
Jacky Rosen 9% $24k Dec 31, 2026
Thom Tillis 12% $21k Dec 31, 2026
Rand Paul 10% $21k Dec 31, 2026
Mike Lee 10% $15k Dec 31, 2026
John Fetterman 9% $12k Dec 31, 2026
Alex Padilla 9% $7k Dec 31, 2026
Catherine Cortez Masto 8% $7k Dec 31, 2026
Andy Kim 7% $3k Dec 31, 2026
Raphael Warnock 12% $3k Dec 31, 2026
Mark Warner 5% $25k Jan 1, 2027
Ruben Gallego 5% $16k Jan 1, 2027
Jerry Moran 2% $13k Jan 1, 2027
Kirsten Gillibrand 10% $6k Jan 1, 2027
Lisa Blunt Rochester 7% $6k Jan 1, 2027

Probability over time

Market-implied probability (%) · 6-hour points · source: Polymarket order book prices.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Senator votes "Yea" on the first Senate vote on final passage of crypto market structure legislation occurring before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, "crypto market structure legislation" is defined identically to Polymarket's "Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?" market: https://polymarket.com/event/crypto-market-structure-legislation-becomes-law-in-2026-20260727223933088 The qualifying vote is the first vote on final passage of the bill in the full Senate - not a committee vote, and not a vote on a motion to proceed, a motion to invoke cloture, or an amendment. This market will resolve to "No" if no qualifying vote occurs before January 1, 2027, or if the named Senator does not vote "Yea" on the qualifying vote for any reason - including voting "Nay," voting "Present," being absent, being paired, or no longer serving in the Senate at the time of the vote. Once the vote has closed and the result has been announced, any subsequent request by the named Senator to add, remove, or change their vote will not be considered for purposes of this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally. This market will resolve according to official records of the U.S. Senate (http://senate.gov) and Library of Congress (http://congress.gov).

Probabilities are Polymarket share prices (a “Yes” share pays $1), not our forecast. Full rules and order book: this event on Polymarket. See more on the crypto prediction markets hub.

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