Prediction markets › Token launch
Will Arc launch a token by ___ ?
Token launch $591k traded · closes Dec 31, 2027 · updated 7 minutes ago
| Outcome | Probability | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|
| September 30, 2026 | <1% | $217k | Sep 30, 2026 |
| December 31, 2026 | 17% | $165k | Dec 31, 2026 |
| June 30, 2027 | 38% | $17k | Jun 30, 2027 |
| December 31, 2027 | 70% | $6k | Dec 31, 2027 |
| December 31, 2025 | No | $16k | Dec 31, 2025 |
| March 31, 2026 | No | $52k | Mar 31, 2026 |
| June 30, 2026 | No | $117k | Jun 30, 2026 |
Probability over time
Market-implied probability (%) · 6-hour points · source: Polymarket order book prices.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Arc (https://x.com/arc) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arc, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Probabilities are Polymarket share prices (a “Yes” share pays $1), not our forecast. Full rules and order book: this event on Polymarket. See more on the crypto prediction markets hub.
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