Prediction markets › Token launch
Will Variational launch a token by ___ ?
Token launch $441k traded · closes Dec 31, 2026 · updated 9 minutes ago
| Outcome | Probability | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|
| September 30, 2026 | 1% | $7k | Sep 30, 2026 |
| October 31, 2026 | 18% | $219 | Oct 31, 2026 |
| November 30, 2026 | 48% | $1k | Nov 30, 2026 |
| December 31, 2026 | 91% | $380k | Dec 31, 2026 |
| December 31, 2025 | No | $49k | Dec 31, 2025 |
| June 30, 2026 | No | $4k | Sep 30, 2026 |
Probability over time
Market-implied probability (%) · 6-hour points · source: Polymarket order book prices.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Variational officially launches a governance token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Variational (https://x.com/variational_io), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Probabilities are Polymarket share prices (a “Yes” share pays $1), not our forecast. Full rules and order book: this event on Polymarket. See more on the crypto prediction markets hub.
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