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Zcash's Orchard pool confirmed exploited?

Other Zcash $28k traded · closes Jun 4, 2027 · updated 1 minute ago

OutcomeProbabilityVolumeCloses
Zcash's Orchard pool confirmed exploited? 5% $28k Jun 4, 2027

Probability over time

Market-implied probability (%) · 6-hour points · source: Polymarket order book prices.

How this market resolves

This market asks whether Zcash's Orchard pool vulnerability publicized June 4 is confirmed to have been exploited on Zcash mainnet before it was fixed. This market resolves "Yes" if Shielded Labs, the Zcash Foundation, or the Zcash Open Development Lab (ZODL) explicitly confirms, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms, that the June 4 Zcash Orchard pool vulnerability was exploited on mainnet before the fix was activated by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Explicit confirmation of any of the following will qualify: - The Orchard pool bug was exploited on Zcash mainnet - Any extra, unauthorized, invalid, or unbacked Zcash was created in the Orchard pool through this vulnerability - A Zcash network upgrade, migration, audit, turnstile-accounting process (including the proposed new shielded pool with enforced turnstile accounting on exiting Orchard coins), or official investigation reveals excess or invalid Zcash in the Orchard pool that the source attributes to this specific vulnerability. New or different exploits targeting the Orchard pool after the original vulnerability was fixed are explicitly disqualified and will not qualify. This market will resolve based on official information from Shielded Labs, the Zcash Foundation, or the Zcash Open Development Lab (ZODL), however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying exploit may also resolve this market.

Probabilities are Polymarket share prices (a “Yes” share pays $1), not our forecast. Full rules and order book: this event on Polymarket. See more on the crypto prediction markets hub or the Zcash price odds.

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