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US national Ethereum reserve before 2027?
Other Ethereum $19k traded · closes Dec 31, 2026 · updated 9 minutes ago
| Outcome | Probability | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|
| US national Ethereum reserve before 2027? | 4% | $19k | Dec 31, 2026 |
Probability over time
Market-implied probability (%) · 6-hour points · source: Polymarket order book prices.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of Ethereum in its reserves at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that the US government confiscating Ethereum does not count as holding Ethereum reserves.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and/or the US federal reserve, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Probabilities are Polymarket share prices (a “Yes” share pays $1), not our forecast. Full rules and order book: this event on Polymarket. See more on the crypto prediction markets hub or the Ethereum price odds.
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